Betting Edge
The PFT Model's read on every game — paired with the best price across sportsbooks to act on it
How to use this: The PFT Model's lean on every game is analysis, not a lock — historically ~50% against the closing spread, so the edge that compounds is price: each game lists the best number on both sides and the book offering it — take it. Mid is the gap between those two numbers; the wider it is, the bigger the middle — the range of final scores where both sides win.
PFT Model vs Market
Top Edges · Week 1 — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
PFT vs mktPFT SEA -4.4 · mkt SEA -4.0
LeanSEA -4.0
Best priceSEA -3.5 -115best of 9
WinSEA 63% · mkt 62%
PFT vs mktPFT IND -1.0 · mkt BAL -3.5
LeanIND +3.5
Best priceIND +4 -110best of 9
WinIND 53% · mkt 40%
PFT vs mktPFT JAX -12.1 · mkt JAX -7.5
LeanJAX -7.5
Best priceJAX -7.5 -110best of 9
WinJAX 81% · mkt 71%
PFT vs mktPFT CIN -3.0 · mkt CIN -3.5
LeanTB +3.5
Best priceTB +4 -110best of 9
WinCIN 59% · mkt 60%
PFT vs mktPFT PHI -10.3 · mkt PHI -4.5
LeanPHI -4.5
Best pricePHI -4 -110best of 9
WinPHI 78% · mkt 63%
PFT vs mktPFT DET -9.7 · mkt DET -7.0
LeanDET -7.0
Best priceDET -7 -110best of 9
WinDET 76% · mkt 70%
PFT vs mktPFT NYG -0.5 · mkt DAL -2.5
LeanNYG +2.5
Best priceNYG +2.5 -115best of 9
WinNYG 51% · mkt 43%
Full Slate — every game, model read + best price
PFT Model
PFT SEA -4.4 · mkt SEA -4.0
proj NE 16 · SEA 21
leans SEA -4.0
◆ Mid 1
SEA -3.5 -115DraftKings
NE +4.5 -115FanDuel
PFT Model
PFT IND -1.0 · mkt BAL -3.5
proj BAL 20 · IND 21
leans IND +3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
IND +4 -110MyBookie
BAL -3.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT JAX -12.1 · mkt JAX -7.5
proj CLE 11 · JAX 23
leans JAX -7.5
◆ Mid 0
JAX -7.5 -110DraftKings
CLE +7.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT CIN -3.0 · mkt CIN -3.5
proj TB 27 · CIN 30
leans TB +3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
CIN -3.5 -110DraftKings
TB +4 -110MyBookie
PFT Model
PFT PHI -10.3 · mkt PHI -4.5
proj WAS 18 · PHI 28
leans PHI -4.5
◆ Mid 1.5
PHI -4 -110LowVig
WAS +5.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT DET -9.7 · mkt DET -7.0
proj NO 17 · DET 27
leans DET -7.0
◆ Mid 0.5
DET -7 -110DraftKings
NO +7.5 -117BetRivers
PFT Model
PFT NYG -0.5 · mkt DAL -2.5
proj DAL 26 · NYG 27
leans NYG +2.5
◆ Mid 1
NYG +2.5 -115DraftKings
DAL -1.5 -120BetUS
PFT Model
PFT DEN -1.9 · mkt KC -2.5
proj DEN 22 · KC 20
leans DEN +2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
KC -2.5 -120DraftKings
DEN +3 -115BetMGM
PFT Model
PFT LAR -7.4 · mkt LAR -3.5
proj SF 22 · LAR 29
leans LAR -3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
LAR -3 -120DraftKings
SF +3.5 -110FanDuel
PFT Model
PFT MIN -2.4 · mkt GB -1.5
proj GB 21 · MIN 24
leans MIN +1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
MIN +1.5 -110DraftKings
GB 0 -105LowVig
PFT Model
PFT TEN -2.8 · mkt TEN -2.5
proj NYJ 20 · TEN 23
leans TEN -2.5
◆ Mid 1
TEN -2 -120BetUS
NYJ +3 -105DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT LV -1.2 · mkt LV -3.0
proj MIA 21 · LV 23
leans MIA +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
LV -3 -120DraftKings
MIA +3.5 -102FanDuel
PFT Model
PFT LAC -8.0 · mkt LAC -10.5
proj ARI 19 · LAC 27
leans ARI +10.5
◆ Mid 1.5
LAC -10 -110BetRivers
ARI +11.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT CHI -0.4 · mkt CHI -2.5
proj CHI 22 · CAR 21
leans CAR +2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
CAR +2.5 -110DraftKings
CHI -2 -120BetUS
PFT Model
PFT PIT -1.8 · mkt PIT -3.0
proj ATL 19 · PIT 21
leans ATL +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
PIT -2.5 -120FanDuel
ATL +3 +100DraftKings
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.