Division
AFC South
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
11.0p10 9.0 — p90 13.0
| Round | Prob | Bar |
|---|---|---|
| Win division | 49.2% | |
| Make playoffs | 88.6% | |
| Divisional rd. | 66.0% | |
| Conf. champ. | 40.9% | |
| Super Bowl | 25.6% | |
| Win SB | 15.3% |
2026 Schedule · SOS
proj 11.2–5.8·rank 19 / 32
SOS Net
-0.01
Opp Off
+0.69
Opp Def
+0.70
| Wk | Opp | Opp | Proj | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsBUF | +2.5 | +5.3 | 65% |
| 2 | vsCIN | -1.7 | +9.4 | 76% |
| 3 | @IND | +2.9 | +0.8 | 52% |
| 4 | vsDAL | -2.3 | +10.0 | 77% |
| 5 | @TEN | -4.8 | +8.5 | 74% |
| 6 | @JAX | +4.2 | -0.5 | 49% |
| 7 | vsNYG | -1.8 | +9.5 | 76% |
| 9 | @LAC | +0.2 | +3.5 | 60% |
| 10 | @CLE | -3.6 | +7.3 | 71% |
| 11 | vsIND | +2.9 | +4.8 | 64% |
| 12 | vsBAL | +1.3 | +6.4 | 68% |
| 13 | @PIT | -0.4 | +4.1 | 62% |
| 14 | @WAS | -0.8 | +4.5 | 63% |
| 15 | vsJAX | +4.2 | +3.5 | 60% |
| 16 | @PHI | +1.4 | +2.3 | 57% |
| 17 | @GB | +0.5 | +3.2 | 59% |
| 18 | vsTEN | -4.8 | +12.5 | 82% |
Quarterbacks · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | C.J. Stroud | 6'3" | 218 | 24 | Ohio State |
| QB | 2nd | Davis Mills | 6'4" | 225 | 27 | Stanford |
| QB | 3rd | Graham Mertz | 6'2" | 216 | 25 | Florida |
Running Backs · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | David Montgomery | 5'11" | 230 | 28 | Iowa State |
| RB | 2nd | Woody Marks | 5'10" | 208 | 25 | USC |
| RB | 3rd | Jawhar Jordan | 5'10" | 186 | 26 | Louisville |
| RB | 4th | British Brooks | 5'11" | 225 | 26 | North Carolina |
| RB | 5th | Noah Whittington | 5'8" | 203 | 24 | Oregon |
| RB | 6th | Evan Hull | 5'10" | 209 | 25 | Northwestern |
| RB | — | Joshua Pitsenberger | 6'0" | 215 | — | Yale |
Wide Receivers · 13
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Nico Collins | 6'4" | 222 | 27 | Michigan |
| WR | 2nd | Jayden Higgins | 6'4" | 215 | 23 | Iowa State |
| WR | 3rd | Tank Dell | 5'10" | 165 | 26 | Houston |
| WR | 4th | Xavier Hutchinson | 6'3" | 210 | 26 | Iowa State |
| WR | 5th | Jaylin Noel | 5'11" | 201 | 23 | Iowa State |
| WR | 6th | Justin Watson | 6'2" | 215 | 30 | Pennsylvania |
| WR | 7th | Lewis Bond | 5'11" | 190 | 23 | Boston College |
| WR | 9th | Jared Wayne | 6'3" | 210 | 25 | Pittsburgh |
| WR | 13th | Jha'Quan Jackson | 5'9" | 188 | 26 | Tulane |
| WR | — | Daniel Sobkowicz | 6'3" | 205 | 23 | Illinois State |
| WR | — | Jalen Walthall | 6'2" | 180 | 23 | Incarnate Word |
| WR | — | Josh Kelly | 6'1" | 192 | 24 | Texas Tech; Washington State; Fresno State |
| WR | — | Treyvhon Saunders | 5'10" | 190 | — | Colgate |
Tight Ends · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Dalton Schultz | 6'5" | 242 | 29 | Stanford |
| TE | 2nd | Foster Moreau | 6'4" | 250 | 29 | LSU |
| TE | 3rd | Marlin Klein | 6'6" | 248 | 23 | Michigan |
| TE | 4th | Cade Stover | 6'4" | 251 | 25 | Ohio State |
| TE | 5th | Brevin Jordan | 6'3" | 245 | 25 | Miami (FL) |
| TE | — | Layne Pryor | 6'2" | 250 | 23 | Northern Iowa |
Offensive Line · 16
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OL | — | Aireontae Ersery | 6'6" | 330 | 24 | Minnesota |
| OL | — | Blake Fisher | 6'6" | 312 | 23 | Notre Dame |
| OL | — | Braden Smith | 6'6" | 312 | 30 | Auburn |
| OL | — | Ed Ingram | 6'3" | 307 | 27 | LSU |
| OL | — | Eli Cox | 6'4" | 309 | 25 | Kentucky |
| OL | — | Evan Brown | 6'3" | 320 | 29 | SMU |
| OL | — | Febechi Nwaiwu | 6'4" | 319 | 23 | Oklahoma; North Texas |
| OL | — | Jake Andrews | 6'3" | 308 | 26 | Troy |
| OL | — | James Neal III | 6'6" | 325 | 23 | Iowa State; Independence Comm. College |
| OL | — | Jarrett Kingston | 6'4" | 308 | 26 | USC; Washington State |
| OL | — | Jarrett Patterson | 6'4" | 310 | 26 | Notre Dame |
| OL | — | Keylan Rutledge | 6'4" | 330 | 22 | Georgia Tech; Middle Tennessee State |
| OL | — | Sam Hagen | 6'6" | 320 | 22 | South Dakota State; North Dakota |
| OL | — | Sidy Sow | 6'5" | 318 | 27 | Eastern Michigan |
| OL | — | Trent Brown | 6'8" | 380 | 33 | Florida; Georgia Military |
| OL | — | Wyatt Teller | 6'4" | 315 | 31 | Virginia Tech |
Interior D-Line · 9
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDT | 1st | Tommy Togiai | 6'2" | 296 | 26 | Ohio State |
| RDT | 1st | Sheldon Rankins | 6'2" | 305 | 32 | Louisville |
| LDT | 2nd | Logan Hall | 6'6" | 283 | 26 | Houston |
| RDT | 2nd | Kayden McDonald | 6'3" | 326 | 21 | Ohio State |
| LDT | 3rd | Kyonte Hamilton | 6'4" | 304 | 23 | Rutgers |
| RDT | 3rd | Naquan Jones | 6'3" | 313 | 28 | Michigan State |
| DL | — | Dominic Bailey | 6'3" | 292 | 24 | Tennessee |
| DL | — | Junior Tafuna | 6'3" | 305 | 25 | Utah |
| DL | — | Sabastian Harsh | 6'2" | 255 | 25 | N.C. State; Wyoming |
Edge Rushers · 5
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDE | 1st | Will Anderson | 6'4" | 243 | 24 | Alabama |
| RDE | 1st | Danielle Hunter | 6'5" | 263 | 31 | LSU |
| LDE | 2nd | Dylan Horton | 6'4" | 275 | 25 | TCU |
| RDE | 2nd | Dominique Robinson | 6'5" | 275 | 27 | Miami (OH) |
| LDE | 4th | Solomon Byrd | 6'3" | 250 | 26 | USC |
Linebackers · 11
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 1st | Azeez Al-Shaair | 6'2" | 228 | 28 | Florida Atlantic |
| SLB | 1st | E.J. Speed | 6'4" | 227 | 31 | Tarleton State |
| WLB | 1st | Henry To'oTo'o | 6'2" | 228 | 25 | Alabama |
| MLB | 2nd | Wade Woodaz | 6'4" | 235 | 22 | Clemson |
| SLB | 2nd | Jamal Hill | 6'0" | 227 | 25 | Oregon |
| WLB | 2nd | Marte Mapu | 6'3" | 230 | 26 | Sacramento State |
| LDE | 3rd | Ali Gaye | 6'6" | 265 | 28 | LSU |
| MLB | 3rd | Aiden Fisher | 6'1" | 231 | 22 | Indiana |
| WLB | 3rd | Jake Hansen | 6'1" | 230 | 27 | Illinois |
| MLB | 4th | Jake Hummel | 6'1" | 235 | 27 | Iowa State |
| LB | — | K.C. Ossai | 6'2" | 241 | 23 | Louisiana |
Defensive Backs · 16
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS | 1st | Calen Bullock | 6'3" | 190 | 23 | USC |
| LCB | 1st | Derek Stingley Jr. | 6'1" | 195 | 24 | LSU |
| NB | 1st | Jalen Pitre | 6'0" | 200 | 26 | Baylor |
| RCB | 1st | Kamari Lassiter | 6'0" | 180 | 23 | Georgia |
| SS | 1st | Reed Blankenship | 6'1" | 203 | 27 | Middle Tennessee |
| FS | 2nd | Jaylen Reed | 6'0" | 212 | 23 | Penn State |
| LCB | 2nd | Tremon Smith | 5'11" | 190 | 29 | Central Arkansas |
| NB | 2nd | Alijah Huzzie | 5'10" | 195 | 25 | North Carolina; East Tennessee State |
| RCB | 2nd | Jaylin Smith | 5'11" | 190 | 22 | USC |
| SS | 2nd | M.J. Stewart | 5'11" | 205 | 30 | North Carolina |
| FS | 3rd | Kaevon Merriweather | 6'0" | 212 | 26 | Iowa |
| NB | 3rd | Brandon Codrington | 5'9" | 185 | 25 | North Carolina Central |
| RCB | 3rd | Ja'Marcus Ingram | 6'2" | 190 | 28 | Buffalo |
| SS | 3rd | Kamari Ramsey | 6'0" | 205 | 21 | USC |
| DB | — | Collin Wright | 6'0" | 195 | 22 | Stanford |
| DB | — | Stephen Hall | 6'0" | 202 | 24 | Missouri; Washington State |
Special Teams · 10
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | 1st | Kai Kroeger | 6'3" | 213 | 23 | South Carolina |
| KR | 1st | Jaylin Noel | 5'11" | 201 | 23 | Iowa State |
| P | 1st | Kai Kroeger | 6'3" | 213 | 23 | South Carolina |
| PK | 1st | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 6'0" | 183 | 32 | UCLA |
| PR | 1st | Jaylin Noel | 5'11" | 201 | 23 | Iowa State |
| KR | 2nd | Tremon Smith | 5'11" | 190 | 29 | Central Arkansas |
| PR | 2nd | Brandon Codrington | 5'9" | 185 | 25 | North Carolina Central |
| KR | 3rd | Brandon Codrington | 5'9" | 185 | 25 | North Carolina Central |
| LS | — | Austin Brinkman | 6'4" | 241 | 23 | West Virginia |
| P | — | Jack Stonehouse | 6'1" | 215 | — | Syracuse; Missouri |
Team Profile
2025 · pct vs league
| Pass Off | 0 | #16 | 52% |
| Rush Off | -0.07 | #30 | 6% |
| Pass Def | -0.22 | #1 | 100% |
| Rush Def | -0.08 | #2 | 97% |
| Scoring Off | 404 | #13 | 61% |
| Scoring Def | 295 | #2 | 97% |
EPA Trend
EPA/play by season · adj
NetOffDefDef: lower = better
Performance · 2025
12-5 · +109 pt diff
| Metric | Off | Def | Rk |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play (adj) | -0.009 | -0.152 | 4 |
| EPA / play (raw) | -0.017 | -0.127 | 24/1 |
| Pass EPA | -0.001 | -0.217 | 16/1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.071 | -0.077 | 30/2 |
| Points | 404 | 295 | — |
Lower def EPA = better. Ranks: 1 best, 32 worst.
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
23.8
13th in NFL
PPG Against
17.4
2nd in NFL
Differential
+6.4
6th in NFL
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / LSeason Results
12-5 · 9-8 ATS
WinLossCoveredmargin per game
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 7-2 | 27.3 | 19.1 |
| Away | 5-3 | 19.8 | 15.4 |
| Competition | |||
| One-score (≤8) | 7-5 | 20.7 | 20 |
| vs Winning teams | 4-4 | 19.8 | 19.4 |
| Environment | |||
| Indoors | 9-3 | 24.6 | 18.2 |
| Outdoors | 3-2 | 21.8 | 15.4 |
| Grass | 3-1 | 22.5 | 12.5 |
| Turf | 9-4 | 24.2 | 18.8 |
| Cold (<40°F) | 1-0 | 20 | 10 |
Recent Form · last 5
5-0 SU · 3-2 ATS · O3/U2
Betting Profile
2025
| Straight up | 12-5 |
| ATS | 9-853% |
| Over / Under | 6-11 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 5-3 |
| As underdog | 4-5 |
| Home | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-4 |
vs closing line · splits show cover-no cover
Cap & Roster Construction
APY $315M· gtd $474M
OFF $89.8M (28%)DEF $218M (69%)ST $7.6M
| Group | Players | APY | % Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 3 | $17.2M | 5% |
| RB | 5 | $12.5M | 4% |
| WR | 8 | $41.5M | 13% |
| TE | 4 | $18.7M | 6% |
| DL | 5 | $21.1M | 7% |
| EDGE | 6 | $96.3M | 31% |
| LB | 8 | $32.5M | 10% |
| DB | 13 | $67.9M | 22% |
| ST | 2 | $7.6M | 2% |
Top Contracts
| Player | Yrs | Total | Gtd | APY | Cap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AndersonDE | 3 | $150M | $100M | $50.0M | 16.6% |
| Danielle HunterDE | 1 | $40.1M | $39.6M | $40.1M | 13.3% |
| Nico CollinsWR | 2 | $60.0M | $57.0M | $30.0M | 10.0% |
| Derek Stingley Jr.CB | 3 | $90.0M | $48.0M | $30.0M | 10.7% |
| Azeez Al-ShaairLB | 3 | $54.0M | $38.8M | $18.0M | 6.0% |
| Jalen PitreS | 3 | $39.0M | $20.7M | $13.0M | 4.7% |
Pending Free Agents
| Player | Free | APY |
|---|---|---|
| Davis MillsQB | 2026 | $7.0M |
| Tommy TogiaiDT | 2026 | $2.7M |
| Jake HansenLB | 2026 | $2.7M |
| Brevin JordanTE | 2026 | $1.7M |
| Danielle HunterDE | 2027 | $40.1M |
| Dalton SchultzTE | 2027 | $12.6M |
| C.J. StroudQB | 2027 | $9.1M |
| Tremon SmithCB | 2027 | $3.3M |
Roster Profile
avg age 25.7
R1 4Day2 18Day3 27UDFA 18
Homegrown 32 (48%)Acquired 35
Avg experience3.4 yrs
Rookies / Vets (8+ yr)7 / 8
| Group | Players | Avg Age |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 3 | 25.3 |
| RB | 6 | 25.7 |
| WR | 9 | 25.4 |
| TE | 5 | 26.2 |
| DL | 6 | 26 |
| EDGE | 6 | 26.5 |
| LB | 10 | 26.1 |
| DB | 14 | 25.1 |
| ST | 8 | 25.4 |
Injury Report · 8
last report week 20
| Pos | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| S | M.J. Stewart | IR· Knee |
| OL | Wyatt Teller | IR· Calf |
| TE | Brevin Jordan | IR· Illness |
| LB | Jake Hansen | IR· Chest |
| CB | Jaylin Smith | IR· Hamstring |
| DT | Kyonte Hamilton | IR |
| OL | Braden Smith | IR· Concussion |
| TE | Foster Moreau | IR· Ankle |
HOU News
9 items
- Texans waive G Sidy SowThe Texans parted ways with offensive lineman Sidy Sow on Monday.
- NY Giants news: Giants sign WR/KR Braxton BerriosThe NY Giants sign WR/KR Braxton Berrios to bolster their ailing receiving corps.
- Giants agree to sign Braxton Berrios to one-year dealThe Giants are looking at a few veteran receivers, but they already know one player at the position they want on their roster.
- Giants agree to sign Braxton Berrios to one-year dealThe Giants are looking at a few veteran receivers, but they already know one player at the position they want on their roster.
- Braxton Berrios to sign one-year deal with Giants, reportsThe Giants are signing free agent WR Braxton Berrios to a one-year deal, according to reports.
- Giants signing veteran wide receiver Braxton Berrios to one-year dealThe Giants are adding some needed receiver depth, signing veteran Braxton Berrios to a one-year deal.
- C.J. Stroud won't let contract talks hang over season prepEligible for an extension for the first time, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud says he has done his part to earn a new deal but isn't focused on the negotiations.
- C.J. Stroud on possible contract extension: If it's time to do it, then it isDefensive end Will Anderson signed a contract extension with the Texans this offseason, but their other 2023 first-round pick did not land a similar deal.
- Texans give star WR Nico Collins raise in reworked dealTwo-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins and the Texans reached agreement on an adjusted contract that guarantees his salary the next two seasons and includes a $9 million cash increase this year and an $8 million cash increase next year.