NFL Terminal — NFL projections, playoff odds & analytics

Division

AFC West

Team	2025 Rec	Win Div	Playoff
DEN	14-3	38%	55%
LAC	11-6	21%	37%
KC	6-11	38%	56%
LV	3-14	3%	5%

Record = 2025 final · odds = 2026 simulation

2026 Outlook

Projected wins

8.0p10 6.0 — p90 11.0

Round	Prob	Bar
Win division	21.1%
Make playoffs	36.9%
Divisional rd.	17.8%
Conf. champ.	7.5%
Super Bowl	2.9%
Win SB	1.2%

2026 Schedule · SOS

proj 8.3–8.7·rank 6 / 32

SOS Net

+0.56

Opp Off

+0.11

Opp Def

-0.45

Wk	Opp	Opp	Proj	Win%
1	vsARI	-2.0	+4.2	62%
2	vsLV	-5.3	+7.6	71%
3	@BUF	+2.5	-4.2	38%
4	@SEA	+7.4	-9.1	25%
5	vsDEN	+1.4	+0.8	52%
6	@KC	+1.4	-3.1	41%
8	@LAR	+6.3	-8.0	28%
9	vsHOU	+5.7	-3.5	40%
10	@BAL	+1.3	-3.0	41%
11	vsNYJ	-6.9	+9.1	75%
12	vsNE	+2.5	-0.3	49%
13	@TB	-0.3	-1.4	46%
14	@LV	-5.3	+3.6	60%
15	vsSF	+0.7	+1.6	55%
16	@MIA	-2.4	+0.6	52%
17	vsKC	+1.4	+0.9	53%
18	@DEN	+1.4	-3.2	41%

Quarterbacks · 3

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
QB	1st	Justin Herbert	6'6"	236	28	Oregon
QB	2nd	Trey Lance	6'4"	226	26	North Dakota State
QB	3rd	DJ Uiagalelei	6'4"	252	25	Florida State

Running Backs · 8

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
FB	1st	Alec Ingold	6'1"	232	29	Wisconsin
RB	1st	Omarion Hampton	6'0"	220	23	North Carolina
FB	2nd	Scott Matlock	6'4"	296	25	Boise State
RB	2nd	Keaton Mitchell	5'8"	190	24	East Carolina
RB	3rd	Kimani Vidal	5'8"	215	24	Troy
RB	4th	Jaret Patterson	5'8"	195	26	Buffalo
RB	5th	Amar Johnson	5'10"	205	23	South Dakota State
RB	—	Gregory Desrosiers	5'11"	200	—	Memphis; UMass Amherst; Louisville

Wide Receivers · 12

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
WR	1st	Ladd McConkey	6'0"	185	24	Georgia
WR	2nd	Quentin Johnston	6'2"	208	24	TCU
WR	3rd	Tre Harris	6'3"	210	24	Ole Miss
WR	4th	Brenen Thompson	5'9"	170	22	Mississippi State
WR	5th	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	6'1"	182	24	Auburn
WR	6th	Derius Davis	5'8"	165	25	TCU
WR	7th	Dalevon Campbell	6'4"	220	24	South Carolina
WR	8th	Luke Grimm	6'0"	190	24	Kansas
WR	—	Devonte Ross	5'10"	171	23	Penn State; Troy
WR	—	JaQuae Jackson	6'1"	184	26	Rutgers; California (PA)
WR	—	Mante Morrow	6'4"	210	24	Upper Iowa University; New Mexico State
WR	—	Sincere Brown	6'5"	190	24	Colorado; Campbell University

Tight Ends · 6

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
TE	1st	Oronde Gadsden	6'5"	236	22	Syracuse
TE	2nd	David Njoku	6'4"	246	29	Miami
TE	3rd	Charlie Kolar	6'6"	265	27	Iowa State
TE	—	Evan Svoboda	6'5"	251	23	Wyoming; Snow
TE	—	Jerand Bradley	6'5"	223	23	Kansas State
TE	—	Johnny Pascuzzi	6'4"	241	24	Tulane; Iowa

Offensive Line · 17

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
OL	—	Alex Harkey	6'6"	327	24	Oregon; Texas State-San Marcos; Colorado; Tyler JC
OL	—	Ben Cleveland	6'6"	357	27	Georgia
OL	—	Branson Taylor	6'6"	330	24	Pittsburgh
OL	—	Cole Strange	6'5"	305	27	Tennessee-Chattanooga
OL	—	Isaiah World	6'8"	318	22	Oregon; Nevada
OL	—	Jacob Spomer	6'3"	290	—	Fresno State; Diablo Valley College
OL	—	Jake Slaughter	6'4"	308	23	Florida
OL	—	Joe Alt	6'8"	322	23	Notre Dame
OL	—	Josh Kaltenberger	6'6"	308	24	Maryland; Purdue
OL	—	Kayode Awosika	6'3"	312	27	Buffalo
OL	—	Laekin Vakalahi	6'5"	327	23
OL	—	Logan Taylor	6'7"	312	24	Boston College; Virginia
OL	—	Rashawn Slater	6'4"	315	27	Northwestern
OL	—	Travis Burke	6'9"	315	23	Memphis; Florida International; Gardner-Webb
OL	—	Trevor Penning	6'7"	325	27	Northern Iowa
OL	—	Trey Pipkins	6'6"	307	29	Sioux Falls
OL	—	Tyler Biadasz	6'4"	318	28	Wisconsin

Interior D-Line · 9

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LDE	1st	Teair Tart	6'2"	315	29	Florida International
NT	1st	Dalvin Tomlinson	6'3"	335	32	Alabama
RDE	1st	Justin Eboigbe	6'5"	292	25	Alabama
NT	2nd	Jamaree Caldwell	6'1"	340	25	Oregon
RDE	3rd	Nick Barrett	6'3"	327	22	South Carolina
DL	—	Jacobian Guillory	6'2"	318	—	LSU
DL	—	Jahmeer Carter	6'2"	311	—	Virginia
DL	—	TeRah Edwards	6'2"	305	24	Illinois; Northwestern
DL	—	Terry Webb	6'3"	313	—	SMU; Texas State-San Marcos; Kilgore

Edge Rushers · 5

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
SLB	1st	Khalil Mack	6'3"	269	35	Buffalo
WLB	1st	Tuli Tuipulotu	6'3"	266	23	USC
SLB	2nd	Akheem Mesidor	6'3"	280	25	Miami
WLB	2nd	Kyle Kennard	6'5"	254	24	South Carolina
SLB	3rd	Bud Dupree	6'4"	269	33	Kentucky

Linebackers · 10

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LILB	1st	Daiyan Henley	6'0"	225	26	Washington State
RILB	1st	Denzel Perryman	5'11"	240	33	Miami
LILB	2nd	Junior Colson	6'3"	247	23	Michigan
RILB	2nd	Troy Dye	6'3"	225	29	Oregon
LILB	3rd	Marlowe Wax	6'1"	236	23	Syracuse
RILB	3rd	Del'Shawn Phillips	6'2"	230	29	Illinois
WLB	3rd	Nadame Tucker	6'2"	247	25	Western Michigan
LILB	4th	Emany Johnson	6'2"	218	25	Nevada
RILB	4th	Lander Barton	6'5"	240	22	Utah
LB	—	Garmon Randolph	6'8"	260	25	Baylor

Defensive Backs · 18

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
FS	1st	Elijah Molden	5'10"	192	27	Washington
LCB	1st	Cam Hart	6'2"	207	25	Notre Dame
NB	1st	Tarheeb Still	6'1"	196	23	Maryland
RCB	1st	Donte Jackson	5'10"	180	30	LSU
SS	1st	Derwin James	6'2"	215	29	Florida State
FS	2nd	Genesis Smith	6'2"	204	21	Arizona
NB	2nd	Nikko Reed	5'10"	180	23	Oregon
RCB	2nd	Deane Leonard	6'0"	195	26	Ole Miss
SS	2nd	Tony Jefferson	5'11"	212	34	Oklahoma
FS	3rd	R.J. Mickens	6'0"	210	24	Clemson
FS	4th	Kendall Williamson	6'0"	203	25	Stanford
RCB	4th	Eric Rogers	6'2"	189	24	Rutgers
DB	—	Avery Smith	5'10"	185	22	Toledo
DB	—	Devin Grant	6'4"	206	—	Syracuse; Buffalo
DB	—	Isas Waxter	6'1"	209	24	Villanova
DB	—	Myles Purchase	5'11"	205	23	Iowa State
DB	—	Noah Avinger	6'0"	190	24	Utah State; New Mexico; San Diego State
DB	—	Rodney Shelley	5'11"	180	—	Georgia Tech

Special Teams · 11

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
H	1st	J.K. Scott	6'5"	208	30	Alabama
KR	1st	Keaton Mitchell	5'8"	190	24	East Carolina
LS	1st	Josh Harris	6'1"	224	37	Bowling Green
P	1st	J.K. Scott	6'5"	208	30	Alabama
PK	1st	Cameron Dicker	6'1"	216	26	Texas
PR	1st	Derius Davis	5'8"	165	25	TCU
KR	2nd	Derius Davis	5'8"	165	25	TCU
PR	2nd	Tarheeb Still	6'1"	196	23	Maryland
KR	3rd	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	6'1"	182	24	Auburn
PR	3rd	Ladd McConkey	6'0"	185	24	Georgia
KR	4th	Kimani Vidal	5'8"	215	24	Troy

Team Profile

2025 · pct vs league

Pass Off	-0.07	#26	19%
Rush Off	0.01	#10	71%
Pass Def	-0.09	#10	71%
Rush Def	-0.07	#5	87%
Scoring Off	368	#20	39%
Scoring Def	340	#9	74%

EPA Trend

EPA/play by season · adj

NetOffDefDef: lower = better

Performance · 2025

11-6 · +28 pt diff

Metric	Off	Def	Rk
EPA / play (adj)	-0.020	-0.023	16
EPA / play (raw)	-0.023	-0.037	26/8
Pass EPA	-0.071	-0.089	26/10
Rush EPA	+0.014	-0.065	10/5
Points	368	340	—

Lower def EPA = better. Ranks: 1 best, 32 worst.

Team Leaders

2025

Passing Yds	Herbert3,727·Lance226
Rushing Yds	Vidal643·Hampton545·Herbert498
Receiving Yds	McConkey789·Allen777·Johnston735
Sacks	Tuipulotu13.0·Oweh7.5·Eboigbe6.0
Interceptions	Jackson4·Jefferson4·James3
Solo Tackles	Henley52·James49·Hart37

Scoring Trend

2025 · pts/game

PPG For

21.6

20th in NFL

PPG Against

9th in NFL

Differential

+1.6

14th in NFL

— Points for— Points against

dots: W / L

Season Results

11-6 · 9-8 ATS

WinLossCoveredmargin per game

Situational Splits

2025 · record · pts

Split	Record	PF	PA
Venue
Home	6-3	23.9	19.9
Away	5-3	19.1	20.1
Competition
One-score (≤8)	6-2	22.2	20.1
vs Winning teams	4-3	18.9	19
Environment
Indoors	8-3	24.5	18.6
Outdoors	3-3	16.5	22.5
Grass	4-2	16.8	20.5
Turf	6-4	24	19.6

Recent Form · last 5

3-2 SU · 3-2 ATS · O1/U4

Wk	Opp	Score	Mgn	Spread	Total
18	@DEN	L 3-19	-16	-14.5✗	37.5U
17	vsHOU	L 16-20	-4	+1.5✗	40.5U
16	@DAL	W 34-17	+17	-1.5✓	50.5O
15	@KC	W 16-13	+3	-5.5✓	41.5U
14	vsPHI	W 22-19	+3	-1.5✓	41.5U

Betting Profile

2025

Straight up	11-6
ATS	9-853%
Over / Under	7-10 O-U
— ATS splits —
As favorite	4-1
As underdog	5-7
Home	6-3
Away	3-5

vs closing line · splits show cover-no cover

Cap & Roster Construction

APY $213M· gtd $345M

OFF $99.0M (46%)DEF $106M (50%)ST $8.5M

Group	Players	APY	% Total
QB	4	$57.7M	27%
RB	7	$16.9M	8%
WR	7	$12.2M	6%
TE	3	$12.2M	6%
DL	4	$19.0M	9%
EDGE	4	$24.9M	12%
LB	6	$13.1M	6%
DB	12	$48.7M	23%
ST	2	$8.5M	4%

Top Contracts

Player	Yrs	Total	Gtd	APY	Cap%
Justin HerbertQB	5	$263M	$134M	$52.5M	23.4%
Derwin JamesS	3	$75.6M	$41.0M	$25.2M	8.4%
Khalil MackDE	1	$18.0M	$18.0M	$18.0M	6.0%
Teair TartDT	3	$30.0M	$15.0M	$10.0M	3.3%
Charlie KolarTE	3	$24.3M	$17.0M	$8.1M	2.7%
Donte JacksonCB	2	$13.0M	$7.0M	$6.5M	2.3%

Pending Free Agents

Player	Free	APY
Bud DupreeDE	2026	$4.0M
Khalil MackDE	2027	$18.0M
Donte JacksonCB	2027	$6.5M
Dalvin TomlinsonDT	2027	$6.2M
Quentin JohnstonWR	2027	$3.5M
David NjokuTE	2027	$3.0M
J.K. ScottPN	2027	$3.0M
Denzel PerrymanLB	2027	$2.8M

Roster Profile

avg age 25.9

R1 9Day2 11Day3 25UDFA 18

Homegrown 30 (48%)Acquired 33

Avg experience3.9 yrs

Rookies / Vets (8+ yr)6 / 11

Group	Players	Avg Age
QB	3	26.3
RB	7	24.9
WR	8	23.9
TE	3	26
DL	5	26.6
EDGE	5	28
LB	9	26.1
DB	12	25.9
ST	11	26.5

Injury Report · 7

last report week 18

Pos	Player	Status
OL	Tyler Biadasz	IR· Ankle
OL	Joe Alt	IR· Ankle
WR	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	IR· Hamstring
CB	Eric Rogers	IR
CB	Nikko Reed	IR· Hamstring
LB	Junior Colson	IR· Ankle
OL	Rashawn Slater	IR· Knee

LAC News

6 items

Los Angeles Chargers 90-in-90: TE Johnny Pascuzzi
The Chargers signed TE Johnny Pascuzzi after a rookie tryout.
LAC Johnny Pascuzzi11h
Chargers Daily Links: Monday Open Thread
Your source for all Chargers and NFL news from around the web.
LAC15h
Justin Herbert joins Chargers OTA after supporting Madison Beer's tour
The Chargers quarterback missed Phase 2 of the team's offseason program to support his girlfriend, singer Madison Beer.
LAC Justin Herbert5d
Chargers make Derwin James NFL's highest-paid safety again
The Chargers and Derwin James Jr. agreed to a three-year, $75.6 million contract extension, making him the highest-paid safety for the second time in his career, his agent David Mulugheta told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Tuesday.
LAC Derwin James5d
Derwin James to McAfee after new deal: 'I'm beyond blessed'
Derwin James joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and talks about becoming the NFL’s highest-paid safety again.
LAC Pat McAfee5d
Derwin James signing four-year extension with Chargers, to become highest-paid safety in NFL for second time
James made NFL history for the second time in his career with another lucrative deal
LAC Derwin James6d