Division
NFC South
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
9.0p10 6.0 — p90 11.0
| Round | Prob | Bar |
|---|---|---|
| Win division | 38.8% | |
| Make playoffs | 50.0% | |
| Divisional rd. | 24.9% | |
| Conf. champ. | 9.9% | |
| Super Bowl | 3.5% | |
| Win SB | 1.2% |
2026 Schedule · SOS
proj 8.7–8.3·rank 28 / 32
SOS Net
-0.64
Opp Off
-0.65
Opp Def
-0.01
| Wk | Opp | Opp | Proj | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CIN | -1.7 | -0.7 | 48% |
| 2 | vsCLE | -3.6 | +5.3 | 65% |
| 3 | vsMIN | +0.0 | +1.7 | 55% |
| 4 | vsGB | +0.5 | +1.2 | 53% |
| 5 | @DAL | -2.3 | -0.0 | 50% |
| 6 | vsPIT | -0.4 | +2.0 | 56% |
| 7 | @CAR | -1.8 | -0.5 | 49% |
| 8 | vsATL | -1.5 | +3.2 | 59% |
| 9 | @CHI | +0.2 | -2.5 | 43% |
| 11 | @DET | +2.0 | -4.3 | 37% |
| 12 | vsCAR | -1.8 | +3.5 | 60% |
| 13 | vsLAC | +0.2 | +1.4 | 54% |
| 14 | @BAL | +1.3 | -3.6 | 39% |
| 15 | vsNO | -3.3 | +5.0 | 64% |
| 16 | @ATL | -1.5 | -0.8 | 48% |
| 17 | vsLAR | +6.3 | -4.6 | 37% |
| 18 | @NO | -3.3 | +1.0 | 53% |
Quarterbacks · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Baker Mayfield | 6'1" | 215 | 31 | Oklahoma |
| QB | 2nd | Jake Browning | 6'2" | 209 | 30 | Washington |
| QB | 4th | Jalon Daniels | 6'0" | 220 | 23 | Kansas |
| QB | — | Connor Bazelak | 6'3" | 225 | 25 | Bowling Green; Indiana; Missouri |
Running Backs · 5
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Bucky Irving | 5'10" | 195 | 23 | Oregon |
| RB | 2nd | Kenneth Gainwell | 5'9" | 200 | 27 | Memphis |
| RB | 3rd | Sean Tucker | 5'10" | 205 | 24 | Syracuse |
| RB | 4th | Josh Williams | 5'9" | 210 | 25 | LSU |
| RB | — | Kadarius Calloway | 6'0" | 213 | 24 | New Mexico State; California; Old Dominion; East Mississippi JC |
Wide Receivers · 9
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Chris Godwin | 6'1" | 209 | 30 | Penn State |
| WR | 2nd | Emeka Egbuka | 6'1" | 205 | 23 | Ohio State |
| WR | 3rd | Jalen McMillan | 6'1" | 192 | 24 | Washington |
| WR | 5th | Tez Johnson | 5'10" | 165 | 24 | Oregon |
| WR | 6th | Kameron Johnson | 5'10" | 170 | 24 | Barton |
| WR | 7th | David Sills | 6'3" | 211 | 31 | West Virginia |
| WR | 8th | Dennis Houston | 6'1" | 190 | 27 | Western Illinois |
| WR | — | Dean Patterson | 6'2" | 200 | 24 | Georgia Tech; Florida International; Findlay |
| WR | — | Garrett Greene | 5'11" | 201 | 24 | West Virginia |
Tight Ends · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Cade Otton | 6'5" | 247 | 27 | Washington |
| TE | 2nd | Payne Durham | 6'5" | 255 | 25 | Purdue |
| TE | 3rd | Ko Kieft | 6'5" | 265 | 28 | Minnesota |
| TE | 4th | Bauer Sharp | 6'5" | 246 | 23 | LSU |
| TE | 5th | Devin Culp | 6'4" | 237 | 26 | Washington |
| TE | — | Kenny Fletcher Jr. | 6'3" | 252 | 22 | Rutgers |
Offensive Line · 15
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OL | — | Ben Bredeson | 6'5" | 315 | 28 | Michigan |
| OL | — | Ben Scott | 6'5" | 310 | 25 | Nebraska; Arizona State |
| OL | — | Benjamin Chukwuma | 6'6" | 310 | 25 | Georgia State |
| OL | — | Billy Schrauth | 6'4" | 310 | 22 | Notre Dame |
| OL | — | Cody Mauch | 6'6" | 303 | 27 | North Dakota State |
| OL | — | Dan Feeney | 6'4" | 310 | 32 | Indiana |
| OL | — | Elijah Klein | 6'4" | 319 | 26 | Texas-El Paso |
| OL | — | Graham Barton | 6'5" | 314 | 24 | Duke |
| OL | — | Henry Lutovsky | 6'6" | 320 | 23 | Nebraska |
| OL | — | Justin Skule | 6'6" | 315 | 29 | Vanderbilt |
| OL | — | Luke Goedeke | 6'5" | 312 | 27 | Central Michigan |
| OL | — | Luke Haggard | 6'7" | 305 | 26 | Indiana |
| OL | — | Marshall Foerner | 6'6" | 303 | 25 | Minnesota State |
| OL | — | Paul Rubelt | 6'10" | 313 | 25 | UCF |
| OL | — | Tristan Wirfs | 6'5" | 320 | 27 | Iowa |
Interior D-Line · 12
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDE | 1st | Elijah Roberts | 6'4" | 295 | 24 | SMU |
| NT | 1st | Vita Vea | 6'4" | 347 | 31 | Washington |
| RDE | 1st | A'Shawn Robinson | 6'3" | 320 | 31 | Alabama |
| LDE | 2nd | Calijah Kancey | 6'0" | 280 | 25 | Pittsburgh |
| NT | 2nd | Elijah Simmons | 6'1" | 334 | 24 | Tennessee |
| RDE | 2nd | Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 6'2" | 305 | 32 | Southern Miss |
| NT | 3rd | Haggai Ndubuisi | 6'6" | 298 | 25 | Nigeria |
| NT | 5th | DeMonte Capehart | 6'5" | 315 | 23 | Clemson |
| DL | — | Deshawn McKnight | 6'3" | 288 | 22 | Arizona; Tennessee-Martin |
| DL | — | Jayson Jones | 6'6" | 335 | 24 | Auburn; Oregon |
| DL | — | Josiah Green | 6'1" | 280 | 23 | Duke; Dartmouth |
| DL | — | Nash Hutmacher | 6'4" | 310 | 25 | Nebraska |
Edge Rushers · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | 1st | YaYa Diaby | 6'4" | 270 | 27 | Louisville |
| WLB | 1st | Rueben Bain Jr. | 6'3" | 275 | 21 | Miami |
| SLB | 2nd | Al-Quadin Muhammad | 6'3" | 250 | 31 | Miami (FL) |
| WLB | 2nd | Anthony Nelson | 6'7" | 271 | 29 | Iowa |
| SLB | 3rd | Mohamed Kamara | 6'1" | 253 | 25 | Colorado State |
| WLB | 3rd | Chris Braswell | 6'3" | 255 | 24 | Alabama |
| WLB | 4th | David Walker | 6'2" | 260 | 25 | Central Arkansas |
Linebackers · 10
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LILB | 1st | Alex Anzalone | 6'3" | 234 | 31 | Florida |
| RILB | 1st | Christian Rozeboom | 6'2" | 230 | 29 | South Dakota State |
| LILB | 2nd | Josiah Trotter | 6'2" | 240 | 21 | Missouri |
| RILB | 2nd | SirVocea Dennis | 6'0" | 230 | 26 | Pittsburgh |
| LILB | 3rd | John Bullock | 6'0" | 230 | 25 | Nebraska |
| RILB | 3rd | Nick Jackson | 6'0" | 235 | 25 | Iowa |
| LB | — | Caden Fordham | 6'1" | 232 | 23 | N.C. State |
| LB | — | Jack Pyburn | 6'3" | 258 | 22 | LSU; Florida |
| LB | — | Javin Wright | 6'4" | 232 | 26 | Nebraska |
| LB | — | Yasir Holmes | 6'4" | 240 | 24 | Tarleton State; Frostburg State |
Defensive Backs · 16
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS | 1st | Antoine Winfield | 5'9" | 203 | 27 | Minnesota |
| LCB | 1st | Zyon McCollum | 6'2" | 199 | 27 | Sam Houston State |
| NB | 1st | Jacob Parrish | 5'10" | 198 | 22 | Kansas State |
| RCB | 1st | Benjamin Morrison | 6'0" | 190 | 22 | Notre Dame |
| SS | 1st | Tykee Smith | 5'10" | 202 | 25 | Georgia |
| FS | 2nd | Rashad Wisdom | 5'9" | 210 | 24 | UTSA |
| LCB | 2nd | Damarion Williams | 5'10" | 183 | 27 | Houston |
| NB | 2nd | Keionte Scott | 6'0" | 194 | 24 | Miami |
| RCB | 2nd | Josh Hayes | 6'0" | 190 | 27 | Kansas State |
| SS | 2nd | Miles Killebrew | 6'2" | 222 | 33 | Southern Utah |
| NB | 3rd | Chase Lucas | 5'11" | 184 | 29 | Arizona State |
| NB | 4th | Kemon Hall | 5'11" | 190 | 28 | North Texas |
| DB | — | Ayden Garnes | 6'0" | 183 | 23 | Arizona; West Virginia |
| DB | — | JJ Roberts | 6'0" | 195 | 24 | Marshall |
| DB | — | Ja'Qurious Conley | 6'1" | 215 | 25 | Charlotte; North Carolina |
| DB | — | Marcus Banks | 6'0" | 190 | 25 | Mississippi State; Alabama |
Special Teams · 12
| Pos | Depth | Player | Ht | Wt | Age | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | 1st | Riley Dixon | 6'4" | 221 | 32 | Syracuse |
| KR | 1st | Kenneth Gainwell | 5'9" | 200 | 27 | Memphis |
| P | 1st | Riley Dixon | 6'4" | 221 | 32 | Syracuse |
| PK | 1st | Chase McLaughlin | 6'0" | 190 | 30 | Illinois |
| PR | 1st | Kameron Johnson | 5'10" | 170 | 24 | Barton |
| KR | 2nd | Kameron Johnson | 5'10" | 170 | 24 | Barton |
| PR | 2nd | Tez Johnson | 5'10" | 165 | 24 | Oregon |
| KR | 3rd | Sean Tucker | 5'10" | 205 | 24 | Syracuse |
| KR | 4th | Josh Williams | 5'9" | 210 | 25 | LSU |
| LS | — | Evan Deckers | 6'3" | 252 | 27 | Duke |
| LS | — | Scott Daly | 6'1" | 245 | 32 | Notre Dame |
| P | — | Aidan Laros | 6'2" | 220 | 23 | Kentucky; Charlotte; Tennessee-Martin |
Team Profile
2025 · pct vs league
| Pass Off | -0.03 | #22 | 32% |
| Rush Off | 0.01 | #11 | 68% |
| Pass Def | 0.07 | #20 | 39% |
| Rush Def | -0.07 | #4 | 90% |
| Scoring Off | 380 | #18 | 45% |
| Scoring Def | 411 | #20 | 39% |
EPA Trend
EPA/play by season · adj
NetOffDefDef: lower = better
Performance · 2025
8-9 · -31 pt diff
| Metric | Off | Def | Rk |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play (adj) | +0.013 | +0.025 | 19 |
| EPA / play (raw) | -0.002 | +0.021 | 21/14 |
| Pass EPA | -0.026 | +0.068 | 22/20 |
| Rush EPA | +0.014 | -0.072 | 11/4 |
| Points | 380 | 411 | — |
Lower def EPA = better. Ranks: 1 best, 32 worst.
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
22.4
18th in NFL
PPG Against
24.2
20th in NFL
Differential
-1.8
19th in NFL
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / LSeason Results
8-9 · 5-12 ATS
WinLossCoveredmargin per game
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 4-4 | 23.9 | 23.6 |
| Away | 4-5 | 21 | 24.7 |
| Competition | |||
| One-score (≤8) | 6-6 | 23.2 | 23.9 |
| vs Winning teams | 3-5 | 23 | 29.2 |
| Environment | |||
| Indoors | 3-2 | 16.4 | 20 |
| Outdoors | 5-7 | 24.8 | 25.9 |
| Grass | 4-6 | 22.8 | 23.2 |
| Turf | 4-3 | 21.7 | 25.6 |
| Cold (<40°F) | 0-1 | 32 | 44 |
Recent Form · last 5
1-4 SU · 0-5 ATS · O2/U3
Betting Profile
2025
| Straight up | 8-9 |
| ATS | 5-1229% |
| Over / Under | 8-9 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 2-4 |
| As underdog | 3-8 |
| Home | 1-7 |
| Away | 4-5 |
vs closing line · splits show cover-no cover
Cap & Roster Construction
APY $213M· gtd $283M
OFF $93.3M (44%)DEF $113M (53%)ST $7.1M
| Group | Players | APY | % Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 2 | $34.7M | 16% |
| RB | 4 | $12.8M | 6% |
| WR | 7 | $32.2M | 15% |
| TE | 4 | $13.7M | 6% |
| DL | 7 | $35.6M | 17% |
| EDGE | 6 | $14.5M | 7% |
| LB | 5 | $13.2M | 6% |
| DB | 11 | $49.3M | 23% |
| ST | 2 | $7.1M | 3% |
Top Contracts
| Player | Yrs | Total | Gtd | APY | Cap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB | 3 | $100M | $40.0M | $33.3M | 13.1% |
| Chris GodwinWR | 3 | $66.0M | $44.0M | $22.0M | 7.9% |
| Antoine WinfieldS | 4 | $84.1M | $45.0M | $21.0M | 8.2% |
| Vita VeaDT | 4 | $71.0M | $14.7M | $17.8M | 9.7% |
| Zyon McCollumCB | 3 | $48.0M | $20.0M | $16.0M | 5.7% |
| Cade OttonTE | 3 | $30.0M | $20.0M | $10.0M | 3.3% |
Pending Free Agents
| Player | Free | APY |
|---|---|---|
| Vita VeaDT | 2025 | $17.8M |
| Baker MayfieldQB | 2027 | $33.3M |
| A'Shawn RobinsonDT | 2027 | $10.0M |
| Anthony NelsonDE | 2027 | $5.0M |
| Chase McLaughlinPK | 2027 | $4.1M |
| Al-Quadin MuhammadDE | 2027 | $4.0M |
| Calijah KanceyDT | 2027 | $3.6M |
| Sean TuckerRB | 2027 | $3.5M |
Roster Profile
avg age 26.3
R1 5Day2 11Day3 26UDFA 19
Homegrown 0 (0%)Acquired 61
Avg experience3.8 yrs
Rookies / Vets (8+ yr)6 / 10
| Group | Players | Avg Age |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 3 | 28 |
| RB | 4 | 24.8 |
| WR | 7 | 26.1 |
| TE | 5 | 25.8 |
| DL | 8 | 26.9 |
| EDGE | 7 | 26 |
| LB | 6 | 26.2 |
| DB | 12 | 26.3 |
| ST | 9 | 26.9 |
Injury Report · 8
last report week 18
| Pos | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DT | Rakeem Nunez-Roches | IR· Ankle |
| S | Miles Killebrew | IR· Knee |
| OL | Ben Bredeson | IR· Knee |
| CB | Zyon McCollum | IR· Thumb |
| TE | Ko Kieft | IR· Head |
| OL | Cody Mauch | IR· Knee |
| DE | David Walker | IR |
| DB | JJ Roberts | IR |
TB News
4 items
- Fully healed from his neck injury, Jalen McMillan ready to help replace Mike EvansBuccaneers receiver Jalen McMillan played only four games last season after a scary neck injury that not only nearly ended his season but also jeopardized his career.TB2h
- Dan Orlovsky: Bucs are a championship contender on paperDan Orlovsky: Bucs are a championship contender on paper
- Bucs adding 'good violence' to set tone for revamped defenseTampa Bay wanted to get bigger and add physicality -- mentally and physically -- to Todd Bowles' unit.
- Source: Bucs RB Bucky Irving (shoulder) likely ready by summerBuccaneers running back Bucky Irving, who is rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery, should be ready later this summer, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.