Model Accuracy
Out-of-sample backtests — projections vs. what actually happened, and vs. Vegas closing lines
Player projections
Beat the naive baseline by 13% on per-game accuracy · p10–p90 coverage 74% (2025 backtest, 4,912 preds)
Team margins vs Vegas
Model MAE 10.75 vs Vegas 9.82 · beats the line 49.6% (2,895 games)
Player Accuracy
per-game rate vs naive · 4,912 predsskill 13%p10–p90 cov 74%
| Stat | N | Model /g | Base /g | Skill | Cov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | |||||
| Pass Yards | 37 | 37.82 | 61.39 | +38% | 60% |
| Pass TDs | 37 | 0.35 | 0.55 | +36% | 70% |
| Pass INTs | 37 | 0.22 | 0.25 | +12% | 65% |
| Pass Att | 37 | 4.29 | 7.99 | +46% | 76% |
| Pass Cmp | 37 | 3.11 | 5.46 | +43% | 68% |
| Rushing | |||||
| Rush Yards | 131 | 9.57 | 11.08 | +14% | 66% |
| Rush TDs | 131 | 0.13 | 0.14 | +3% | 63% |
| Rush Att | 94 | 2.39 | 2.59 | +8% | 69% |
| Receiving | |||||
| Receptions | 334 | 0.7 | 0.78 | +10% | 70% |
| Rec Yards | 334 | 7.84 | 9.08 | +14% | 70% |
| Rec TDs | 334 | 0.1 | 0.11 | +9% | 68% |
| Targets | 334 | 0.98 | 1.05 | +7% | 74% |
| Defense | |||||
| Sacks | 391 | 0.11 | 0.13 | +14% | 73% |
| QB Hits | 197 | 0.22 | 0.26 | +16% | 78% |
| Tackles for Loss | 391 | 0.17 | 0.19 | +12% | 75% |
| Solo Tackles | 661 | 0.57 | 0.72 | +20% | 75% |
| Assist Tackles | 194 | 0.67 | 0.83 | +19% | 71% |
| Interceptions | 464 | 0.05 | 0.05 | +2% | 82% |
| Passes Defended | 270 | 0.19 | 0.19 | +3% | 71% |
| Forced Fumbles | 467 | 0.03 | 0.04 | +18% | 86% |
Team Margins vs Vegas Closing Lines
backtest
| Season | Games | Model MAE | Vegas MAE | Beat% | Corr·M | Corr·V |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 256 | 10.78 | 10.13 | 49.4% | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| 2016 | 256 | 10.04 | 9.02 | 45.4% | 0.17 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 256 | 11.16 | 10.09 | 46.4% | 0.18 | 0.44 |
| 2018 | 256 | 10.6 | 9.98 | 54.7% | 0.28 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 256 | 11.26 | 10.21 | 50% | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| 2020 | 256 | 10.87 | 9.83 | 52% | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| 2021 | 272 | 11.48 | 10.78 | 50% | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| 2022 | 271 | 9.57 | 8.74 | 49.4% | 0.2 | 0.39 |
| 2023 | 272 | 10.65 | 9.9 | 50.4% | 0.3 | 0.43 |
| 2024 | 272 | 10.95 | 9.61 | 48.9% | 0.19 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 272 | 10.92 | 9.72 | 49.1% | 0.19 | 0.5 |
| Overall | 2895 | 10.75 | 9.82 | 49.6% | 0.24 | 0.44 |
Lower MAE = closer to the real margin. Matching Vegas' MAE means we're at market level; a Beat% above 50 implies positive expectation against the closing line.