NFL Terminal — NFL projections, playoff odds & analytics

Division

NFC North

Team	2025 Rec	Win Div	Playoff
CHI	11-6	16%	38%
GB	9-7-1	19%	44%
DET	9-8	46%	72%
MIN	9-8	18%	42%

Record = 2025 final · odds = 2026 simulation

2026 Outlook

Projected wins

8.0p10 6.0 — p90 11.0

Round	Prob	Bar
Win division	16.3%
Make playoffs	37.7%
Divisional rd.	18.5%
Conf. champ.	7.5%
Super Bowl	2.8%
Win SB	1.0%

2026 Schedule · SOS

proj 8.5–8.5·rank 10 / 32

SOS Net

+0.39

Opp Off

-0.19

Opp Def

-0.58

Wk	Opp	Opp	Proj	Win%
1	@CAR	-1.8	+0.0	50%
2	vsMIN	+0.0	+2.2	56%
3	vsPHI	+1.4	+0.8	52%
4	vsNYJ	-6.9	+9.1	75%
5	@GB	+0.5	-2.3	43%
6	@ATL	-1.5	-0.3	49%
7	vsNE	+2.5	-0.3	49%
8	@SEA	+7.4	-9.2	25%
9	vsTB	-0.3	+2.5	57%
11	vsNO	-3.3	+5.5	66%
12	@DET	+2.0	-3.8	39%
13	vsJAX	+4.2	-2.0	44%
14	@MIA	-2.4	+0.6	52%
15	@BUF	+2.5	-4.3	38%
16	vsGB	+0.5	+1.7	55%
17	vsDET	+2.0	+0.2	51%
18	@MIN	+0.0	-1.8	45%

Quarterbacks · 4

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
QB	1st	Caleb Williams	6'1"	226	24	USC
QB	2nd	Tyson Bagent	6'3"	212	25	Shepherd (WV)
QB	3rd	Case Keenum	6'1"	220	38	Houston
QB	—	Miller Moss	6'1"	211	24	Louisville

Running Backs · 6

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
RB	1st	D'Andre Swift	5'8"	204	27	Georgia
RB	2nd	Kyle Monangai	5'8"	207	23	Rutgers
RB	3rd	Roschon Johnson	6'0"	227	25	Texas
RB	4th	Brittain Brown	6'1"	205	28	UCLA
RB	5th	Salvon Ahmed	5'11"	197	27	Washington
RB	—	Coleman Bennett	5'11"	185	23	Kennesaw State; Rice; Bucknell

Wide Receivers · 10

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
WR	1st	Rome Odunze	6'3"	214	23	Washington
WR	2nd	Luther Burden	6'0"	210	22	Missouri
WR	3rd	Kalif Raymond	5'8"	180	31	Holy Cross
WR	4th	Zavion Thomas	5'10"	190	21	LSU
WR	5th	Jahdae Walker	6'3"	206	23	Texas A&M
WR	6th	Scotty Miller	5'9"	174	28	Bowling Green
WR	7th	Maurice Alexander	5'10"	173	29	Florida International
WR	8th	JP Richardson	5'11"	192	24	TCU
WR	—	Kyron Hudson	6'1"	212	24	Penn State; USC
WR	—	Omari Kelly	6'0"	190	22	Michigan State; Middle Tennessee State; Auburn

Tight Ends · 7

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
TE	1st	Colston Loveland	6'6"	241	22	Michigan
TE	2nd	Cole Kmet	6'6"	257	27	Notre Dame
TE	3rd	Sam Roush	6'5"	242	22	Stanford
TE	4th	Stephen Carlson	6'4"	240	29	Princeton
TE	5th	Nikola Kalinic	6'4"	248	29	York (CAN)
TE	—	Hayden Large	6'4"	250	24	Iowa
TE	—	Qadir Ismail	6'6"	245	26	Samford; Villanova

Offensive Line · 16

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
OL	—	Braxton Jones	6'5"	303	27	Southern Utah State
OL	—	Caden Barnett	6'4"	316	23	Wyoming
OL	—	Darnell Wright	6'5"	325	24	Tennessee
OL	—	Garrett Bradbury	6'3"	305	30	N.C. State
OL	—	Jaren Kump	6'5"	306	26	Utah
OL	—	Jedrick Wills	6'4"	307	27	Alabama
OL	—	Joe Thuney	6'5"	301	33	N.C. State
OL	—	Jonah Jackson	6'3"	319	29	Ohio State; Rutgers
OL	—	Jordan McFadden	6'2"	306	26	Clemson
OL	—	Kiran Amegadjie	6'5"	326	24	Yale
OL	—	Kyle Hergel	6'2"	315	26	Boston College; Texas State-San Marcos
OL	—	Logan Jones	6'3"	299	24	Iowa
OL	—	Luke Newman	6'4"	308	24	Michigan State; Holy Cross
OL	—	Mason Murphy	6'5"	315	—	Auburn; USC
OL	—	Ozzy Trapilo	6'8"	312	24	Boston College
OL	—	Theo Benedet	6'7"	305	24	University of British Columbia

Interior D-Line · 10

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LDT	1st	Grady Jarrett	6'1"	294	33	Clemson
RDT	1st	Gervon Dexter	6'6"	326	25	Florida
LDT	2nd	Neville Gallimore	6'2"	307	29	Oklahoma
RDT	2nd	Shemar Turner	6'3"	293	23	Texas A&M
LDT	3rd	James Lynch	6'4"	295	27	Baylor
RDT	3rd	Kentavius Street	6'2"	315	30	North Carolina State
LDT	4th	Jordan van den Berg	6'3"	310	24	Georgia Tech
DL	—	Jamree Kromah	6'3"	268	25	James Madison; Rutgers
DL	—	Jayden Loving	6'1"	309	23	Wake Forest
DL	—	Jeremiah Martin	6'4"	265	25	Washington; Texas A&M

Edge Rushers · 5

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LDE	1st	Montez Sweat	6'6"	270	29	Mississippi State
RDE	1st	Dayo Odeyingbo	6'5"	282	26	Vanderbilt
RDE	2nd	Austin Booker	6'6"	245	23	Kansas
RDE	3rd	Daniel Hardy	6'2"	255	27	Montana State
RDE	4th	Jonathan Garvin	6'4"	257	26	Miami

Linebackers · 11

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
MLB	1st	T.J. Edwards	6'0"	228	29	Wisconsin
SLB	1st	D'Marco Jackson	6'1"	233	27	Appalachian State
WLB	1st	Devin Bush	5'11"	235	27	Michigan
MLB	2nd	Noah Sewell	6'1"	246	24	Oregon
SLB	2nd	Jack Sanborn	6'2"	234	25	Wisconsin
WLB	2nd	Ruben Hyppolite	6'0"	236	24	Maryland
MLB	3rd	Keyshaun Elliott	6'1"	233	22	Arizona State
SLB	3rd	Dominique Hampton	6'3"	220	25	Washington
WLB	3rd	Nephi Sewell	6'0"	228	27	Utah
MLB	4th	Jon Rhattigan	6'0"	236	27	Army
LB	—	Wayne Matthews II	6'0"	221	23	Michigan State; Old Dominion

Defensive Backs · 17

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
FS	1st	Coby Bryant	6'1"	193	27	Cincinnati
LCB	1st	Jaylon Johnson	6'0"	195	27	Utah
NB	1st	Kyler Gordon	5'11"	200	26	Washington
RCB	1st	Tyrique Stevenson	6'0"	212	26	Miami (FL)
SS	1st	Dillon Thieneman	6'0"	205	21	Oregon
FS	2nd	Gervarrius Owens	6'0"	200	26	Houston
NB	2nd	Josh Blackwell	5'11"	179	27	Duke
RCB	2nd	Malik Muhammad	6'0"	182	21	Texas
SS	2nd	Cam Lewis	5'9"	183	29	Buffalo
LCB	3rd	Terell Smith	6'0"	204	26	Minnesota
RCB	3rd	Dallis Flowers	6'1"	196	28	Pittsburg State
SS	3rd	Elijah Hicks	5'11"	204	26	California
FS	4th	Anthony Johnson	6'0"	205	26	Iowa State
CB	—	Jaylon Jones	5'11"	190	28	Ole Miss
DB	—	Dontae Manning	5'10"	190	24	Oregon
DB	—	KC Eziomume	6'1"	198	24	Tulane; Albany
DB	—	Skyler Thomas	6'2"	191	22	Oregon State

Special Teams · 13

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
H	1st	Tory Taylor	6'4"	225	28	Iowa
KR	1st	Zavion Thomas	5'10"	190	21	LSU
P	1st	Tory Taylor	6'4"	225	28	Iowa
PK	1st	Cairo Santos	5'8"	173	34	Tulane
PR	1st	Kalif Raymond	5'8"	180	31	Holy Cross
KR	2nd	Kalif Raymond	5'8"	180	31	Holy Cross
PR	2nd	Zavion Thomas	5'10"	190	21	LSU
KR	3rd	Josh Blackwell	5'11"	179	27	Duke
PR	3rd	Josh Blackwell	5'11"	179	27	Duke
KR	4th	Luther Burden	6'0"	210	22	Missouri
K	—	Gabriel Plascencia	6'0"	245	—	San Diego State; San Mateo
LS	—	Beau Gardner	6'5"	249	24	Georgia; UCLA
LS	—	Luke Elkin	6'1"	235	23	Iowa

Team Profile

2025 · pct vs league

Pass Off	0.09	#9	74%
Rush Off	0.05	#4	90%
Pass Def	0.06	#19	42%
Rush Def	0	#19	42%
Scoring Off	441	#9	74%
Scoring Def	415	#23	29%

EPA Trend

EPA/play by season · adj

NetOffDefDef: lower = better

Performance · 2025

11-6 · +26 pt diff

Metric	Off	Def	Rk
EPA / play (adj)	+0.047	+0.045	14
EPA / play (raw)	+0.054	+0.033	11/21
Pass EPA	+0.089	+0.056	9/19
Rush EPA	+0.054	-0.001	4/19
Points	441	415	—

Lower def EPA = better. Ranks: 1 best, 32 worst.

Team Leaders

2025

Passing Yds	Williams3,942·Bagent47
Rushing Yds	Swift1,087·Monangai783·Williams383
Receiving Yds	Loveland713·Moore682·Odunze661
Sacks	Sweat10.0·Dexter6.0·Booker4.5
Interceptions	Byard7·Wright5·Edmunds4
Solo Tackles	Byard58·Edmunds57·Wright50

Scoring Trend

2025 · pts/game

PPG For

25.9

9th in NFL

PPG Against

24.4

23rd in NFL

Differential

+1.5

15th in NFL

— Points for— Points against

dots: W / L

Season Results

11-6 · 9-7 ATS

WinLossCoveredmargin per game

Situational Splits

2025 · record · pts

Split	Record	PF	PA
Venue
Home	6-2	25.6	17.6
Away	5-4	26.2	30.4
Competition
One-score (≤8)	7-4	26.5	26.1
vs Winning teams	4-5	24	27.1
Environment
Indoors	2-1	21.7	31
Outdoors	9-5	26.9	23
Grass	9-5	25.3	21.7
Turf	2-1	29	37
Cold (<40°F)	3-2	22.8	17.2

Recent Form · last 5

2-3 SU · 2-3 ATS · O2/U3

Wk	Opp	Score	Mgn	Spread	Total
18	vsDET	L 16-19	-3	+3.5✗	51.5U
17	@SF	L 38-42	-4	-3.5✗	51.5O
16	vsGB	W 22-16	+6	+1.5✓	45.5U
15	vsCLE	W 31-3	+28	+7.5✓	38.5U
14	@GB	L 21-28	-7	-6.5✗	44.5O

Betting Profile

2025

Straight up	11-6
ATS	9-7-156%
Over / Under	8-9 O-U
— ATS splits —
As favorite	5-5
As underdog	4-2
Home	4-3
Away	5-4

vs closing line · splits show cover-no cover

Cap & Roster Construction

APY $234M· gtd $409M

OFF $67.6M (29%)DEF $161M (69%)ST $5.1M

Group	Players	APY	% Total
QB	3	$17.6M	8%
RB	5	$12.5M	5%
WR	7	$16.2M	7%
TE	4	$21.3M	9%
DL	6	$25.8M	11%
EDGE	5	$45.2M	19%
LB	8	$29.7M	13%
DB	12	$60.8M	26%
ST	2	$5.1M	2%

Top Contracts

Player	Yrs	Total	Gtd	APY	Cap%
Montez SweatDE	4	$98.0M	$42.0M	$24.5M	10.9%
Jaylon JohnsonCB	4	$76.0M	$43.8M	$19.0M	7.4%
Dayo OdeyingboDE	3	$48.0M	$29.5M	$16.0M	5.7%
Grady JarrettDT	3	$43.5M	$27.2M	$14.5M	5.2%
Kyler GordonCB	3	$40.0M	$21.3M	$13.3M	4.8%
Coby BryantS	3	$40.0M	$25.8M	$13.3M	4.4%

Pending Free Agents

Player	Free	APY
Montez SweatDE	2027	$24.5M
Cole KmetTE	2027	$12.5M
T.J. EdwardsLB	2027	$10.0M
D'Andre SwiftRB	2027	$8.0M
Tyson BagentQB	2027	$5.0M
Cairo SantosPK	2027	$3.9M
Kalif RaymondWR	2027	$3.5M
Elijah HicksS	2027	$2.6M

Roster Profile

avg age 26.2

R1 6Day2 15Day3 24UDFA 21

Homegrown 28 (42%)Acquired 38

Avg experience4.1 yrs

Rookies / Vets (8+ yr)8 / 7

Group	Players	Avg Age
QB	3	29
RB	5	26
WR	8	25.1
TE	5	25.8
DL	7	27.3
EDGE	5	26.2
LB	10	25.7
DB	13	25.8
ST	10	27

Injury Report · 10

last report week 20

Pos	Player	Status
LB	T.J. Edwards	IR· Glute
RB	Salvon Ahmed	IR· Rib
DE	Dayo Odeyingbo	IR· Elbow
LB	Noah Sewell	IR· Elbow
CB	Terell Smith	IR· Ankle
RB	Roschon Johnson	IR· Thumb
OL	Kiran Amegadjie	IR· Elbow
DT	Shemar Turner	IR
OL	Ozzy Trapilo	IR· Quadricep
LB	Jack Sanborn	IR· Groin

CHI News

20 items

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker wasn't willing to "foist" billions onto taxpayers
The Illinois legislature failed to pass a measure that would keep the Bears in the state.
CHI3h
30 Day Challenge: Earliest Chicago Bears Memory
What is your earliest memory as a Chicago Bears fan? Our own @ryandroste writes about his!
CHI7h
Chicago Bears 2026 Offseason Superlatives: Breakout Candidate
The WCG crew makes our picks for some 2026 Bears superlatives, with our choice for Breakout Player right here.
CHI9h
What's next for Bears after no bill passed to keep team in Illinois?
What's next for Bears after no bill passed to keep team in Illinois?
CHI Pat McAfee12h
Chicago makes another pitch to be the site of a new Bears stadium
With the Illinois legislature ending its spring session without passing a bill that would lay the foundation for the Bears to build a new stadium at their in-state preference of Arlington Heights, Chicago sees an opening.
CHI12h
A bill to keep Chicago Bears in Illinois didn't pass. What happens now?
Lawmakers in Illinois wrapped their spring session without successfully passing a bill to keep the Bears in-state. Will they move to Indiana?
CHI13h
Chicago Bears Post June 1st Trade Market Roundtable – Part 2
Our guys @EDuerrwaechter, Josh, @GOOCH1701, and @iamcogs share more thoughts on the post-June 1st trade market here.
CHI13h
Signs point to Caleb Williams as featured player in Madden 27
EA will announce the next cover athlete for the Madden video game franchise on Thursday.
CHI Caleb Williams13h
Signs point to Caleb Williams as featured player in Madden 27
EA will announce the next cover athlete for the Madden video game franchise on Thursday.
CHI Caleb Williams13h
Lawmakers adjourn without passing bill to keep Bears in Illinois
Illinois lawmakers have adjourned their spring session without passing a bill aiming to keep the Chicago Bears from leaving the state and will now wait until fall to take up the matter. The Bears say they plan to announce their decision soon.
CHI16h
Chicago Bears Post June 1st Trade Roundtable Thoughts – Part 1
Our guys @EDuerrwaechter, Josh, @GOOCH1701, and @iamcogs share their thoughts on the upcoming post June 1st trade market for the Bears.
CHI17h
Bears say they are evaluating their options after getting no help from Illinois legislature
The Illinois House has closed its legislative session, without passing a bill that would help the Bears build a stadium.
CHI18h
Bears' Illinois solution hinges on new plan to create local stadium authorities
The Illinois legislature is playing beat the clock.
CHI1d
Madden 27 rumors swirl around Caleb Williams as next cover. Will it happen?
The official release of the Madden 27 cover athlete has not been announced but rumors are swirling that Bears QB Caleb Williams will be next.
CHI Caleb Williams1d
Chicago Bears 2026 Offseason Superlatives: Make-Or-Break Year
The WCG crew makes our picks for some 2026 Bears superlatives, with our take on the Make-or-Break player up next.
CHI1d
Bears stadium deal moves to back burner on last day of Illinois legislative session
Absent a deal on Sunday, the Bears could move to Indiana.
CHI2d
Is Caleb Williams the Madden 27 cover athlete?
If a recent leak is to be believed, the Bears will be having a Madden cover athlete for the first time in team history.
CHI Caleb Williams2d
Chicago Bears Question of the Day: How many yards will Caleb throw for in 2026?
A well known guide has Caleb falling short of 4k yards again. What do you think?
CHI2d
Chicago Bears 2026 Offseason Superlatives: Most Underrated
The WCG crew makes our picks for some 2026 Bears superlatives, with the most excited to watch up next.
CHI2d
‘Expect another exponential jump’ from the Chicago Bears’ offense
It’s early in the offseason, and the positive buzz is building for the Bears, which is definitely better than the alternative.
CHI3d